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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northeastern University0.50+2.43vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley-0.09+3.24vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles-1.09+5.45vs Predicted
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4University of California at Irvine-0.88+3.27vs Predicted
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5University of California at Davis-1.95+5.66vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27-1.26vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.17+1.25vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine-0.36-0.66vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine-1.36+0.03vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.07-5.54vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-1.99-0.29vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-1.84-1.77vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-1.82-2.55vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-1.42-4.63vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.83-4.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.43Northeastern University0.5024.4%1st Place
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5.24University of California at Berkeley-0.0911.3%1st Place
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8.45University of California at Los Angeles-1.094.3%1st Place
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7.27University of California at Irvine-0.885.3%1st Place
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10.66University of California at Davis-1.952.2%1st Place
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4.74Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.2712.7%1st Place
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8.25Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.173.8%1st Place
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7.34University of California at Irvine-0.366.3%1st Place
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9.03University of California at Irvine-1.362.9%1st Place
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4.46University of California at Santa Cruz0.0715.7%1st Place
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10.71University of California at Los Angeles-1.991.6%1st Place
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10.23University of California at Davis-1.842.6%1st Place
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10.45University of California at Los Angeles-1.822.1%1st Place
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9.37University of California at Irvine-1.422.8%1st Place
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10.38Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.832.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Anderson | 24.4% | 19.0% | 15.7% | 13.2% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Lisle | 11.3% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Liam Williams | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.2% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Chloe Lighterink | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 18.1% |
| Samuel Groom | 12.7% | 14.7% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mira Shupe | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 2.9% |
| Nikita Swatek | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| Matthew Stank | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 4.9% |
| Caden Domingo | 15.7% | 14.0% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Alexandra Toaxen | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 17.0% |
| Nathan Baer | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 14.3% |
| Katherine Smith | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 14.8% |
| Gennis Marie Pilapil | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 6.2% |
| Paul Munsell | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 15.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.