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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston4.00+5.74vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.00+8.32vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University4.01+3.80vs Predicted
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4Harvard University4.17+2.40vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+2.33vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College4.05+0.67vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+3.36vs Predicted
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8Tufts University4.08-1.54vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.02+1.33vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.34-0.65vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90-3.82vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-4.65vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida3.48-4.31vs Predicted
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14Stanford University4.05-7.52vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.48-2.70vs Predicted
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16Washington College2.12-2.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.74College of Charleston4.000.1%1st Place
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10.32SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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6.8Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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6.4Harvard University4.170.1%1st Place
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7.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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6.67Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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10.36St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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6.46Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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10.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.020.0%1st Place
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9.35U. S. Naval Academy3.340.0%1st Place
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7.18Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.1%1st Place
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7.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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8.69University of South Florida3.480.0%1st Place
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6.48Stanford University4.050.1%1st Place
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12.3Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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13.25Washington College2.120.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Stokes | 7.8% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Ted Green | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 9.2% |
| Dillon Paiva | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| John Stokes | 9.6% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Austen Anderson | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Matthew Wefer | 6.9% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| John Wallace | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 8.0% |
| William Haeger | 9.5% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Evan Siepert | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 9.0% |
| Devin Laviano | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.2% |
| Andrew Sommer | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| SEAN Ross | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 2.9% |
| Kevin Laube | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 12.4% | 18.7% | 23.5% |
| Hadley Burnham | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 18.4% | 38.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.