← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Old Dominion University3.76+3.17vs Predicted
-
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+2.43vs Predicted
-
3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.80+1.16vs Predicted
-
4University of Pennsylvania2.79+2.40vs Predicted
-
5Georgetown University4.51-2.26vs Predicted
-
6George Washington University2.23+1.47vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Naval Academy2.88-1.14vs Predicted
-
8Cornell University3.35-3.13vs Predicted
-
9Columbia University2.07-1.21vs Predicted
-
11Fordham University2.16-3.55vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.47-1.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.17Old Dominion University3.760.1%1st Place
-
4.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.1%1st Place
-
4.16St. Mary's College of Maryland3.800.1%1st Place
-
6.4University of Pennsylvania2.790.0%1st Place
-
2.74Georgetown University4.510.3%1st Place
-
7.47George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
-
5.86U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
-
4.87Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
-
7.79Columbia University2.070.0%1st Place
-
7.45Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
-
10.65U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephanie Roble | 12.7% | 14.3% | 16.2% | 13.6% | 14.3% | 12.7% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Caroline Patten | 11.8% | 13.4% | 14.2% | 13.1% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Megan Magill | 13.5% | 13.7% | 14.9% | 17.2% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Johnson | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 15.9% | 14.0% | 9.6% | 0.8% |
| Sydney Bolger | 31.8% | 23.1% | 16.7% | 11.6% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Carroll | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 15.6% | 19.2% | 21.8% | 3.7% |
| Marissa Lihan | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 1.0% |
| Lauren Turner | 10.1% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 13.7% | 13.5% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Melissa Bermudez | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 14.4% | 19.2% | 26.1% | 6.1% |
| Ryann Hall | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 13.5% | 18.0% | 24.4% | 2.8% |
| Jessie Shifalo | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 3.2% | 7.1% | 85.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.