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📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.80+3.10vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.23+5.44vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.79+3.36vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.88+2.18vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.16+2.53vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University4.51-3.22vs Predicted
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7Columbia University2.07+0.50vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60-3.65vs Predicted
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9Cornell University3.35-3.96vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.76-5.94vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.47-0.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.800.1%1st Place
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7.44George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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6.36University of Pennsylvania2.790.1%1st Place
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6.18U. S. Naval Academy2.880.0%1st Place
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7.53Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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2.78Georgetown University4.510.3%1st Place
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7.5Columbia University2.070.0%1st Place
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4.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.1%1st Place
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5.04Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
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4.06Old Dominion University3.760.2%1st Place
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10.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megan Magill | 12.4% | 15.3% | 16.5% | 14.9% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Meredith Carroll | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 16.0% | 19.4% | 21.0% | 3.1% |
| Amanda Johnson | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 15.4% | 14.0% | 10.0% | 0.7% |
| Marissa Lihan | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 14.6% | 15.9% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 1.1% |
| Ryann Hall | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 16.8% | 25.8% | 4.0% |
| Sydney Bolger | 30.6% | 23.5% | 16.4% | 12.0% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Melissa Bermudez | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 19.4% | 24.1% | 3.8% |
| Caroline Patten | 12.0% | 13.3% | 16.1% | 14.8% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Turner | 9.2% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 13.4% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 0.3% |
| Stephanie Roble | 15.7% | 15.4% | 14.0% | 14.7% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Jessie Shifalo | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 86.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.