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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia3.54+5.13vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79+3.38vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.79+5.87vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48+2.56vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.38+1.75vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.26+1.26vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.37-0.06vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.02-0.09vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University3.38-2.28vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland1.98+0.67vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.79-3.21vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.73-3.92vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia1.69-1.52vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University3.33-8.22vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania1.69-3.44vs Predicted
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17Fordham University1.85-4.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.13University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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5.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.1%1st Place
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8.87U. S. Naval Academy2.790.1%1st Place
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6.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.1%1st Place
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6.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.380.1%1st Place
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7.26St. Mary's College of Maryland3.260.1%1st Place
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6.94U. S. Naval Academy3.370.1%1st Place
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7.91U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.020.1%1st Place
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6.72Georgetown University3.380.1%1st Place
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11.67St. Mary's College of Maryland1.980.0%1st Place
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8.79University of Pennsylvania2.790.1%1st Place
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9.08Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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12.48University of Virginia1.690.0%1st Place
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6.78Georgetown University3.330.1%1st Place
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12.56University of Pennsylvania1.690.0%1st Place
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12.14Fordham University1.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Wolcott | 9.2% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Sam Padnos | 13.7% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| James Allsopp | 5.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 2.6% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 7.9% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Ike Babbitt | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Gordon Lamphere | 6.5% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Evan Siepert | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Hugh McBride | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Ainsley Thomson | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 12.4% | 13.3% | 15.5% | 15.8% |
| Amanda Johnson | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| Alexander Sachs | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 3.5% |
| Chris Kennedy | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 18.4% | 25.4% |
| Daniel Eichler | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| William Pilling | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 13.6% | 17.8% | 25.5% |
| John O'Riordan | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 17.0% | 21.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.