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📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.51+1.76vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.79+4.23vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+1.59vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.76+0.24vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.16+2.52vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.88+0.05vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.80-3.08vs Predicted
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8Columbia University2.07-0.35vs Predicted
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9Cornell University3.35-3.94vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.23-2.68vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.47-0.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.76Georgetown University4.510.3%1st Place
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6.23University of Pennsylvania2.790.1%1st Place
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4.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.1%1st Place
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4.24Old Dominion University3.760.1%1st Place
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7.52Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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6.05U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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3.92St. Mary's College of Maryland3.800.2%1st Place
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7.65Columbia University2.070.0%1st Place
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5.06Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
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7.32George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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10.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Bolger | 29.8% | 22.6% | 18.8% | 12.3% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Johnson | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 8.9% | 0.5% |
| Caroline Patten | 11.2% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Stephanie Roble | 13.5% | 13.4% | 12.9% | 17.4% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryann Hall | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 14.5% | 17.1% | 24.6% | 4.4% |
| Marissa Lihan | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 13.7% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 8.2% | 0.6% |
| Megan Magill | 16.9% | 15.8% | 17.1% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Melissa Bermudez | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 14.2% | 18.7% | 25.2% | 3.9% |
| Lauren Turner | 8.3% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 0.3% |
| Meredith Carroll | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 14.6% | 17.5% | 22.2% | 2.9% |
| Jessie Shifalo | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 87.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.