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📊 Prediction Accuracy
87.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
8
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.43+1.25vs Predicted
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2University of Washington0.43+1.85vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.65+0.48vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley-0.55+1.62vs Predicted
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5Western Washington University0.08-0.51vs Predicted
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6Oregon State University-0.31-0.85vs Predicted
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7Northwestern University-0.62-1.21vs Predicted
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8University of Oregon-0.46-2.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.25California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.4%1st Place
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3.85University of Washington0.430.1%1st Place
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3.48University of California at Santa Cruz0.650.2%1st Place
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5.62University of California at Berkeley-0.550.1%1st Place
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4.49Western Washington University0.080.1%1st Place
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5.15Oregon State University-0.310.1%1st Place
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5.79Northwestern University-0.620.0%1st Place
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5.38University of Oregon-0.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Myers | 40.0% | 27.4% | 14.4% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Maxwell Miller | 13.1% | 14.8% | 18.5% | 17.5% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 7.7% | 2.9% |
| Colin Olson | 17.5% | 18.5% | 18.9% | 14.9% | 13.4% | 9.6% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| Adrien Stroumza | 5.2% | 5.8% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 14.4% | 19.5% | 24.4% |
| Nathan Gerber | 8.9% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 14.7% | 15.7% | 15.4% | 11.4% | 8.1% |
| Liam Brinton | 6.8% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 14.2% | 12.7% | 16.8% | 14.9% | 17.2% |
| Owen Lubben | 4.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 20.9% | 27.9% |
| Emily Avey | 4.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 12.8% | 14.5% | 15.8% | 19.8% | 17.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.