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📊 Prediction Accuracy
87.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
8
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy0.93+1.32vs Predicted
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2Western Washington University0.41+1.13vs Predicted
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3University of Washington-0.48+1.62vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley-0.64+0.92vs Predicted
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5Oregon State University-1.63+1.51vs Predicted
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6University of Oregon-0.14-1.99vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.33-2.59vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University-1.40-1.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.32California Poly Maritime Academy0.930.4%1st Place
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3.13Western Washington University0.410.2%1st Place
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4.62University of Washington-0.480.1%1st Place
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4.92University of California at Berkeley-0.640.1%1st Place
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6.51Oregon State University-1.630.0%1st Place
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4.01University of Oregon-0.140.1%1st Place
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4.41University of California at Santa Cruz-0.330.1%1st Place
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6.08Northwestern University-1.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Downey | 37.1% | 25.1% | 18.7% | 10.7% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Dalton Lovett | 19.4% | 22.4% | 20.7% | 15.6% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Jaden Unruh | 8.7% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 15.5% | 16.5% | 16.3% | 13.3% | 7.8% |
| Ethan Lisle | 6.5% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 16.1% | 16.6% | 15.8% | 11.2% |
| Quincy Spurlock | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 12.8% | 21.4% | 43.0% |
| Dylan Murphy | 12.5% | 13.2% | 16.0% | 16.7% | 18.0% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 3.4% |
| Hunter Holguin | 10.4% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 16.7% | 14.5% | 16.5% | 12.3% | 5.7% |
| Luke Notkin | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 11.3% | 16.8% | 24.2% | 28.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.