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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.80+3.10vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.16+5.56vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University4.51-0.18vs Predicted
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4Cornell University3.35+1.16vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60-0.54vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.79+0.25vs Predicted
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7Columbia University2.07+0.55vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.23-0.69vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University3.76-4.83vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.88-4.06vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.47-1.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.800.1%1st Place
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7.56Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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2.82Georgetown University4.510.3%1st Place
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5.16Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
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4.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.1%1st Place
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6.25University of Pennsylvania2.790.0%1st Place
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7.55Columbia University2.070.0%1st Place
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7.31George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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4.17Old Dominion University3.760.1%1st Place
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5.94U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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10.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megan Magill | 13.8% | 14.1% | 15.8% | 15.1% | 14.3% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ryann Hall | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 14.5% | 19.2% | 24.0% | 3.9% |
| Sydney Bolger | 28.9% | 22.3% | 18.4% | 12.9% | 8.8% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Turner | 8.4% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 0.2% |
| Caroline Patten | 13.1% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 14.1% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Johnson | 4.6% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 15.3% | 11.4% | 13.6% | 10.6% | 0.8% |
| Melissa Bermudez | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 20.2% | 23.8% | 4.6% |
| Meredith Carroll | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 16.9% | 21.7% | 2.8% |
| Stephanie Roble | 13.1% | 15.5% | 16.0% | 15.7% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Marissa Lihan | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 14.0% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 0.7% |
| Jessie Shifalo | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 86.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.