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📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.45+2.70vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+1.54vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.95+4.19vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.39-0.12vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.60+2.76vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.71-0.73vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.71-1.90vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.11-1.45vs Predicted
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9Columbia University2.43-3.00vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.74-2.62vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49-1.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.450.2%1st Place
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3.54St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.2%1st Place
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7.19University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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3.88Old Dominion University3.390.2%1st Place
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7.76Cornell University1.600.0%1st Place
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5.27Georgetown University2.710.1%1st Place
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5.1U. S. Naval Academy2.710.1%1st Place
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6.55Fordham University2.110.1%1st Place
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6.0Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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7.38George Washington University1.740.0%1st Place
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9.64U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Crane | 16.7% | 18.4% | 17.6% | 14.4% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Mayumi Roller | 21.3% | 19.1% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Christina Johns | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 13.6% | 15.0% | 16.0% | 8.8% |
| Morgan Wilson | 17.2% | 15.0% | 17.2% | 15.7% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Hillary Paulsen | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 14.7% | 21.5% | 14.2% |
| Amanda Taselaar | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 0.9% |
| Killian Corbishley | 10.5% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| Mia Cooper | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 3.9% |
| Irene Jacqz | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 3.0% |
| Kathleen Hilton | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 18.2% | 17.1% | 9.9% |
| Maggy Ashton | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 9.2% | 14.6% | 56.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.