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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College2.11+10.10vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island3.23+4.35vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+5.59vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.00+3.18vs Predicted
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5Boston University2.57+4.26vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.08+5.06vs Predicted
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7Princeton University2.35+3.09vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.67+0.86vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+1.60vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.50-0.77vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.45-1.48vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.85+4.10vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.65-4.59vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.39-4.07vs Predicted
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15Harvard University3.03-8.04vs Predicted
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16Brown University2.36-6.17vs Predicted
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17Tufts University2.08-5.80vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida1.51-4.49vs Predicted
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19Northeastern University1.74-6.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.1Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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6.35University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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8.59Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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7.18Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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9.26Boston University2.570.0%1st Place
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11.06Tulane University2.080.0%1st Place
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10.09Princeton University2.350.0%1st Place
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8.86Boston College2.670.1%1st Place
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10.6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.0%1st Place
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9.23Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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9.52Dartmouth College2.450.0%1st Place
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16.1Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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8.41Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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9.93Yale University2.390.1%1st Place
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6.96Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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9.83Brown University2.360.0%1st Place
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11.2Tufts University2.080.0%1st Place
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13.51University of South Florida1.510.0%1st Place
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12.22Northeastern University1.740.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 4.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.5% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.4% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| Matheo Graham-capasso | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 1.9% |
| Peter Joslin | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.0% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Aston Atherton | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 15.3% | 45.0% |
| Christopher Lukens | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Nathan Sih | 5.1% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 10.1% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Bryan Trammell | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 5.1% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 11.8% | 14.3% | 14.4% |
| Ted Bjerregaard | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 8.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.