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📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University3.39+2.84vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.45+1.59vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+0.72vs Predicted
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4Columbia University2.43+2.12vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.74+2.49vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.81-0.95vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.11-0.47vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.60-0.23vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.71-4.66vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49-1.32vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.95-5.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.84Old Dominion University3.390.2%1st Place
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3.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.450.2%1st Place
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3.72St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.2%1st Place
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6.12Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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7.49George Washington University1.740.0%1st Place
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5.05Georgetown University2.810.1%1st Place
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6.53Fordham University2.110.1%1st Place
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7.77Cornell University1.600.0%1st Place
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5.34U. S. Naval Academy2.710.1%1st Place
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9.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.490.0%1st Place
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6.88University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Wilson | 16.7% | 16.1% | 16.8% | 15.5% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Crane | 21.7% | 18.2% | 14.7% | 13.5% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Mayumi Roller | 17.7% | 18.1% | 16.7% | 14.0% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Irene Jacqz | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 2.5% |
| Kathleen Hilton | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 16.9% | 19.1% | 11.7% |
| Lauren Burke | 10.5% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 14.1% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 1.0% |
| Mia Cooper | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 15.2% | 9.5% | 5.8% |
| Hillary Paulsen | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 14.2% | 20.5% | 15.0% |
| Killian Corbishley | 9.2% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 1.6% |
| Maggy Ashton | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 17.0% | 56.4% |
| Christina Johns | 3.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 14.5% | 15.1% | 14.6% | 5.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.