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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.58+6.53vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.30+2.30vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.85+2.99vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.34+3.48vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.06+2.44vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston2.38+2.41vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University1.70+3.25vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-0.50vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.26+2.02vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.83-0.74vs Predicted
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11University of Miami1.93+0.37vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.62-1.60vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.27-5.28vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-4.55vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin0.70-0.74vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University1.12-3.47vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida1.45-5.90vs Predicted
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18University of Texas0.41-3.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.53Boston College2.588.0%1st Place
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4.3Stanford University3.3017.3%1st Place
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5.99Yale University2.8510.7%1st Place
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7.48Dartmouth College2.348.3%1st Place
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7.44Bowdoin College2.067.7%1st Place
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8.41College of Charleston2.386.0%1st Place
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10.25Jacksonville University1.704.0%1st Place
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7.5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.326.6%1st Place
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11.02Old Dominion University1.262.6%1st Place
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9.26Tufts University1.834.2%1st Place
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11.37University of Miami1.932.3%1st Place
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10.4Fordham University1.622.9%1st Place
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7.72Georgetown University2.276.9%1st Place
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9.45University of California at Santa Barbara1.784.6%1st Place
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14.26University of Wisconsin0.701.4%1st Place
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12.53North Carolina State University1.122.1%1st Place
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11.1University of South Florida1.453.4%1st Place
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14.98University of Texas0.411.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Busch | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 17.3% | 17.0% | 14.3% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Chase Decker | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Patrick Igoe | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 2.5% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Blake Goodwin | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 5.1% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 5.8% |
| Patrick Dolan | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.0% |
| Peter Barnard | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 1.2% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 18.3% | 27.1% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 9.7% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 4.3% |
| Reese Zebrowski | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 17.4% | 38.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.