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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.38+5.62vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.79+6.76vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48+3.44vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79+1.53vs Predicted
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5University of Virginia3.54+1.26vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.79+2.95vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.38-0.15vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.73+1.00vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.02-1.96vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy3.37-4.16vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.98-0.42vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia1.69-0.55vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.26-6.87vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.85-4.02vs Predicted
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17Georgetown University3.33-10.01vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania1.69-5.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.380.1%1st Place
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8.76U. S. Naval Academy2.790.0%1st Place
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6.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.1%1st Place
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5.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.1%1st Place
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6.26University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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8.95University of Pennsylvania2.790.0%1st Place
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6.85Georgetown University3.380.1%1st Place
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9.0Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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8.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.020.1%1st Place
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6.84U. S. Naval Academy3.370.1%1st Place
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11.58St. Mary's College of Maryland1.980.0%1st Place
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12.45University of Virginia1.690.0%1st Place
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7.13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.260.1%1st Place
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11.98Fordham University1.850.0%1st Place
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6.99Georgetown University3.330.1%1st Place
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12.59University of Pennsylvania1.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Babbitt | 7.9% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| James Allsopp | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 3.2% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 10.2% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Sam Padnos | 13.1% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Amanda Johnson | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 2.9% |
| Hugh McBride | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Alexander Sachs | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 2.8% |
| Evan Siepert | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Ainsley Thomson | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 17.8% | 15.0% |
| Chris Kennedy | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 11.6% | 16.6% | 27.1% |
| Gordon Lamphere | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| John O'Riordan | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 16.1% | 19.5% |
| Daniel Eichler | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| William Pilling | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 18.8% | 25.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.