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📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.45+2.70vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.39+1.72vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+0.69vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.74+3.69vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.95+2.01vs Predicted
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6Columbia University2.43-0.01vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.71-1.94vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.11-1.46vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.60-1.17vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.71-4.91vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49-2.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.450.2%1st Place
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3.72Old Dominion University3.390.2%1st Place
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3.69St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.2%1st Place
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7.69George Washington University1.740.0%1st Place
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7.01University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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5.99Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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5.06U. S. Naval Academy2.710.1%1st Place
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6.54Fordham University2.110.1%1st Place
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7.83Cornell University1.600.0%1st Place
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5.09Georgetown University2.710.1%1st Place
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9.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Crane | 17.3% | 18.1% | 16.4% | 14.1% | 13.5% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Wilson | 19.5% | 18.3% | 13.2% | 15.1% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Mayumi Roller | 18.4% | 16.0% | 17.9% | 15.6% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Kathleen Hilton | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 14.1% | 17.5% | 19.6% | 11.1% |
| Christina Johns | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 14.4% | 15.2% | 7.9% |
| Irene Jacqz | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 14.0% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 3.3% |
| Killian Corbishley | 10.8% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Mia Cooper | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 13.6% | 3.7% |
| Hillary Paulsen | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 13.2% | 18.5% | 18.9% | 14.7% |
| Amanda Taselaar | 10.6% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 0.8% |
| Maggy Ashton | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 8.9% | 15.3% | 57.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.