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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+11.33vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+5.58vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.82+6.28vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.75+5.20vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.83+3.96vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.42+0.57vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.99+1.29vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston3.10-0.22vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.54-2.93vs Predicted
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10Stanford University2.76-0.47vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-1.04vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.180.00vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University3.22-5.75vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.86-5.42vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College3.06-7.07vs Predicted
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16George Washington University1.90-3.18vs Predicted
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17Jacksonville University1.65-3.26vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.75-4.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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7.58St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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9.28Dartmouth College2.820.0%1st Place
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9.2Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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8.96University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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6.57Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.29U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.78College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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6.07Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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9.53Stanford University2.760.1%1st Place
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9.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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12.0Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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7.25Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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8.58Cornell University2.860.1%1st Place
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7.93SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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12.82George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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13.74Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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13.11University of Wisconsin1.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Burns | 3.1% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 14.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| William Michels | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Carmen Cowles | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 2.3% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Connor Nelson | 9.9% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 10.7% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Chapman Petersen | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% |
| Will Murray | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.3% |
| Noyl Odom | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 10.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 9.7% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Hayden Earl | 5.5% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| Benton Amthor | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 16.8% |
| Emily Allen | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 16.8% | 24.5% |
| Reed Weston | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 14.1% | 18.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.