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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+11.13vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.75+7.39vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.22+4.43vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.42+2.38vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.83+3.74vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.15vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.82+1.82vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.86+0.63vs Predicted
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9Stanford University2.76+0.05vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.54-3.78vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College3.06-2.96vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.65+1.66vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-5.85vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-4.72vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston3.10-7.36vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.24-1.27vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin1.75-3.77vs Predicted
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18George Washington University1.90-5.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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9.39Yale University2.750.0%1st Place
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7.43Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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6.38Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.74University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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8.15U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.82Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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8.63Cornell University2.860.0%1st Place
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9.05Stanford University2.760.0%1st Place
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6.22Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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8.04SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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13.66Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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7.15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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9.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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7.64College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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14.73Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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13.23University of Wisconsin1.750.0%1st Place
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12.35George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Burns | 3.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 9.9% |
| Carmen Cowles | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Connor Nelson | 10.9% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| William Michels | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Hayden Earl | 4.9% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Chapman Petersen | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.8% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Benton Amthor | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Emily Allen | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 18.4% | 20.6% |
| Leo Boucher | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Will Murray | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Diogo Silva | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 16.0% | 33.9% |
| Reed Weston | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 15.9% | 15.9% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 9.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.