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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+6.44vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.42+4.59vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.54+3.09vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+5.56vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+6.92vs Predicted
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6University of Wisconsin1.75+7.16vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.86+1.70vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.76+1.04vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College3.06-1.30vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.82-0.93vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.90+1.72vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.75-2.52vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.83-4.31vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University2.18-2.88vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.99-6.89vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston3.10-8.31vs Predicted
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17Georgetown University2.45-6.44vs Predicted
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18Jacksonville University1.65-4.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.44St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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6.59Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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6.09Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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9.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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11.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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13.16University of Wisconsin1.750.0%1st Place
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8.7Cornell University2.860.1%1st Place
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9.04Stanford University2.760.1%1st Place
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7.7SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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9.07Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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12.72George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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9.48Yale University2.750.0%1st Place
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8.69University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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11.12Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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8.11U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.69College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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10.56Georgetown University2.450.0%1st Place
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13.37Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Connor Nelson | 7.7% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.2% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Will Murray | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.3% |
| Michael Burns | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 12.5% |
| Reed Weston | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 20.7% |
| Hayden Earl | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
| Chapman Petersen | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.2% |
| Benton Amthor | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| William Michels | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 14.2% | 16.8% |
| Carmen Cowles | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.7% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.7% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Noah Zittrer | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Enzo Menditto | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% |
| Emily Allen | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 14.6% | 21.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.