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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.86+7.74vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.42+4.44vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+4.22vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.75+4.86vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.45+5.10vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.06+1.70vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+2.40vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+3.73vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.82-0.39vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.54-3.89vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston3.10-3.31vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.65+1.51vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.24+1.40vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.83-5.61vs Predicted
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15Stanford University2.76-6.16vs Predicted
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16George Washington University1.90-3.50vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin1.75-3.98vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy2.99-10.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.74Cornell University2.860.1%1st Place
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6.44Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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7.22St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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8.86Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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10.1Georgetown University2.450.0%1st Place
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7.7SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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9.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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11.73U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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8.61Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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6.11Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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7.69College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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13.51Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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14.4Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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8.39University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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8.84Stanford University2.760.1%1st Place
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12.5George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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13.02University of Wisconsin1.750.0%1st Place
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7.76U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden Earl | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.0% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Leo Boucher | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Carmen Cowles | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| Enzo Menditto | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 3.1% |
| Benton Amthor | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Will Murray | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.9% |
| Michael Burns | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 7.0% |
| William Michels | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 12.7% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Noah Zittrer | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Emily Allen | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 16.3% | 19.9% |
| Diogo Silva | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 16.0% | 32.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
| Chapman Petersen | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 11.7% |
| Reed Weston | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 15.6% | 15.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.