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📊 Prediction Accuracy
72.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.45+2.87vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.39+1.87vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+0.85vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.28+0.27vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.11+1.82vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.71-0.49vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.81+0.31vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.95-0.92vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.74-1.27vs Predicted
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10Columbia University2.43-4.07vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49-2.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.87Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.450.2%1st Place
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3.87Old Dominion University3.390.2%1st Place
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3.85St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.2%1st Place
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4.27Georgetown University3.280.1%1st Place
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6.82Fordham University2.110.1%1st Place
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5.51U. S. Naval Academy2.710.1%1st Place
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7.31Cornell University1.810.0%1st Place
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7.08University of Pennsylvania1.950.1%1st Place
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7.73George Washington University1.740.0%1st Place
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5.93Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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9.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Crane | 16.1% | 16.5% | 16.4% | 14.3% | 13.3% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Morgan Wilson | 18.5% | 16.8% | 14.3% | 13.6% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Mayumi Roller | 16.7% | 15.8% | 17.2% | 14.5% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nancy Hagood | 14.2% | 14.6% | 13.5% | 15.2% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Mia Cooper | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 13.6% | 14.8% | 6.0% |
| Killian Corbishley | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 2.1% |
| Alison Love | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 16.9% | 16.4% | 10.0% |
| Christina Johns | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 15.2% | 13.0% | 17.4% | 6.8% |
| Kathleen Hilton | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 17.9% | 19.6% | 13.0% |
| Irene Jacqz | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% |
| Maggy Ashton | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 15.0% | 59.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.