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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.35+8.93vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.29+4.28vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.40+2.93vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.24vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.64+0.02vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.93+5.44vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.50+2.19vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.39-2.24vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.93+2.42vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University1.24+3.98vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.79-2.81vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-2.10vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.03-2.10vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.55-5.35vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin0.43+0.88vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.35-6.17vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-5.08vs Predicted
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18George Washington University2.35-8.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.93College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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6.28Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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5.93Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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7.24St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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5.02Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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11.44Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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9.19Dartmouth College2.500.0%1st Place
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5.76Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
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11.42Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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13.98Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
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8.19Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
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9.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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10.9University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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8.65U. S. Naval Academy2.550.1%1st Place
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15.88University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
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9.83SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
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11.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
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9.55George Washington University2.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Dufour | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| Stephan Baker | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 10.0% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Justin Callahan | 15.2% | 14.1% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 4.9% |
| James Paul | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 12.2% | 12.5% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 4.5% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 12.6% | 20.5% | 20.5% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 4.2% |
| Jack Welburn | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 8.8% | 16.1% | 50.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 1.7% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 6.0% |
| Owen Timms | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.