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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.40+4.99vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.29+4.33vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.64+2.02vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.35+5.69vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.35+4.64vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.35+3.84vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.50+2.17vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.79-0.03vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.93+2.45vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-2.50vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.39-5.05vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.03-0.65vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University1.24+0.66vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.55-5.35vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin0.43+0.89vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-4.04vs Predicted
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17Cornell University1.93-5.47vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-8.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.99Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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6.33Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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5.02Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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9.69College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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9.64SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
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9.84George Washington University2.350.0%1st Place
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9.17Dartmouth College2.500.0%1st Place
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7.97Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
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11.45Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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7.5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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5.95Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
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11.35University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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13.66Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
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8.65U. S. Naval Academy2.550.1%1st Place
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15.89University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
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11.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
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11.53Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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9.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam O'Keefe | 11.1% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 9.0% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 13.9% | 12.3% | 14.3% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 1.5% |
| Owen Timms | 4.3% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| James Paul | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 7.8% | 4.6% |
| Owen Hennessey | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 10.8% | 12.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 4.1% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 18.3% | 18.7% |
| Jack Welburn | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 16.1% | 51.7% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 6.4% |
| J.J. Smith | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 6.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.