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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.40+5.03vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+7.92vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston2.35+7.12vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82+7.76vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.29+1.21vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.33vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.35+2.88vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.93+3.44vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.35+0.80vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.79-1.72vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.64-5.85vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.35-1.90vs Predicted
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13Stanford University3.39-7.23vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.93-2.85vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.55-6.05vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College2.50-6.67vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin0.43-0.99vs Predicted
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18Jacksonville University1.24-4.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.03Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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9.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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10.12College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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11.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
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6.21Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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7.33St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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9.88University of Pennsylvania2.350.0%1st Place
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11.44Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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9.8George Washington University2.350.0%1st Place
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8.28Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
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5.15Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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10.1SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
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5.77Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
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11.15Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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8.95U. S. Naval Academy2.550.1%1st Place
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9.33Dartmouth College2.500.0%1st Place
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16.01University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
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13.76Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam O'Keefe | 10.4% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 1.5% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 3.6% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 2.0% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 6.5% |
| Stephan Baker | 11.1% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 1.8% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 4.8% |
| Owen Timms | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Justin Callahan | 14.3% | 15.1% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 2.4% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 12.3% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 4.5% |
| Jack Welburn | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 0.5% |
| James Paul | 3.7% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.1% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 15.3% | 55.6% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 12.1% | 21.4% | 17.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.