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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.29+5.42vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+7.88vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.40+2.96vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.64+0.95vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.39+0.89vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston2.35+3.85vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.93+4.48vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.35+1.74vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.35+0.81vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.79-1.69vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.50-1.68vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-4.34vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-1.22vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.55-5.22vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.93-3.56vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.35-6.09vs Predicted
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17Jacksonville University1.24-2.99vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.43-2.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.42Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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9.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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5.96Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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4.95Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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5.89Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
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9.85College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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11.48Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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9.74University of Pennsylvania2.350.0%1st Place
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9.81George Washington University2.350.0%1st Place
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8.31Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
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9.32Dartmouth College2.500.1%1st Place
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7.66St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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11.78U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
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8.78U. S. Naval Academy2.550.1%1st Place
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11.44Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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9.91SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
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14.01Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
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15.8University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 9.3% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 1.2% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 10.6% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Justin Callahan | 15.9% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 11.6% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.4% |
| J.J. Smith | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 6.2% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 1.1% |
| Owen Timms | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 1.1% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| James Paul | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 6.3% |
| Jack Welburn | 5.8% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 5.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 1.9% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 21.3% | 19.6% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 16.7% | 51.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.