← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy2.55+8.22vs Predicted
-
2Yale University3.29+4.37vs Predicted
-
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+6.92vs Predicted
-
4Stanford University3.39+1.84vs Predicted
-
5Cornell University1.93+6.41vs Predicted
-
6Brown University3.40-0.19vs Predicted
-
7Dartmouth College2.50+2.21vs Predicted
-
8SUNY Maritime College2.35+1.73vs Predicted
-
9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-1.76vs Predicted
-
10George Washington University2.35+0.15vs Predicted
-
11College of Charleston2.35-0.97vs Predicted
-
12Harvard University3.64-6.75vs Predicted
-
13Georgetown University2.79-5.05vs Predicted
-
14Jacksonville University1.24-0.38vs Predicted
-
15Old Dominion University1.93-3.54vs Predicted
-
16University of Pennsylvania2.35-6.12vs Predicted
-
17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-4.92vs Predicted
-
18University of Wisconsin0.43-2.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
9.22U. S. Naval Academy2.550.0%1st Place
-
6.37Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
-
9.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
-
5.84Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
-
11.41Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
-
5.81Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
-
9.21Dartmouth College2.500.1%1st Place
-
9.73SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
-
7.24St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
-
10.15George Washington University2.350.0%1st Place
-
10.03College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
-
5.25Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
-
7.95Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
-
13.62Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
-
11.46Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
-
9.88University of Pennsylvania2.350.0%1st Place
-
12.08U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
-
15.84University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Welburn | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| Stephan Baker | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 11.8% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 6.0% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 11.3% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| James Paul | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Owen Timms | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 1.5% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.8% |
| Justin Callahan | 14.1% | 14.6% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 19.8% | 17.7% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 4.3% |
| Javier Garcon | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.0% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 6.9% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 9.1% | 14.7% | 52.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.