← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Pennsylvania2.35+9.00vs Predicted
-
2Yale University3.29+4.37vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy2.55+6.26vs Predicted
-
4Brown University3.40+1.79vs Predicted
-
5George Washington University2.35+4.77vs Predicted
-
6College of Charleston2.35+3.87vs Predicted
-
7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+0.37vs Predicted
-
8SUNY Maritime College2.35+1.71vs Predicted
-
9Stanford University3.39-3.25vs Predicted
-
10Dartmouth College2.50-0.48vs Predicted
-
11Georgetown University2.79-2.74vs Predicted
-
12Harvard University3.64-6.73vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-1.25vs Predicted
-
14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-4.56vs Predicted
-
15Cornell University1.93-3.53vs Predicted
-
16Old Dominion University1.93-4.38vs Predicted
-
17Jacksonville University1.24-3.04vs Predicted
-
18University of Wisconsin0.43-2.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
10.0University of Pennsylvania2.350.0%1st Place
-
6.37Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
-
9.26U. S. Naval Academy2.550.0%1st Place
-
5.79Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
-
9.77George Washington University2.350.0%1st Place
-
9.87College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
-
7.37St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
-
9.71SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
-
5.75Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
-
9.52Dartmouth College2.500.1%1st Place
-
8.26Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
-
5.27Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
-
11.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
-
9.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
-
11.47Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
-
11.62Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
-
13.96Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
-
15.81University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Garcon | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 1.9% |
| Stephan Baker | 7.6% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Welburn | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 12.6% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Owen Timms | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 1.4% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 11.3% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Paul | 5.9% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 0.5% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Justin Callahan | 13.6% | 14.2% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Weinbecker | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 5.9% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| J.J. Smith | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 5.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 6.2% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 12.7% | 21.5% | 19.1% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 8.4% | 15.3% | 52.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.