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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.35+8.91vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.50+7.40vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.40+2.95vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.64+0.93vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.54+3.94vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.39-0.19vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+2.61vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.93+3.31vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University1.24+4.85vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.93+1.68vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.35-1.07vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-4.35vs Predicted
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13Yale University3.29-6.97vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College2.35-4.51vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.35-5.32vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-4.07vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy2.55-7.91vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.43-2.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.91College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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9.4Dartmouth College2.500.0%1st Place
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5.95Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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4.93Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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8.94Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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5.81Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
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9.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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11.31Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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13.85Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
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11.68Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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9.93George Washington University2.350.0%1st Place
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7.65St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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6.03Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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9.49SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
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9.68University of Pennsylvania2.350.0%1st Place
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11.93U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
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9.09U. S. Naval Academy2.550.0%1st Place
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15.81University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Dufour | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 2.0% |
| James Paul | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 9.5% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 15.4% | 15.3% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Diego Escobar | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 11.6% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
| J.J. Smith | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 4.7% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 12.0% | 22.0% | 17.5% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 5.4% |
| Owen Timms | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.4% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 11.0% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 1.1% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 7.4% |
| Jack Welburn | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 14.2% | 53.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.