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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.35+8.68vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.40+3.72vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.50+6.12vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University1.24+9.41vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.93+6.01vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.08vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.29-1.06vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.64-3.23vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.55-0.35vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.39-4.21vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.03-0.09vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-2.33vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.35-3.68vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-2.73vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University2.54-6.37vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.93-4.79vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.39-3.82vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.43-2.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.68College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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5.72Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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9.12Dartmouth College2.500.0%1st Place
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13.41Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
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11.01Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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7.08St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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5.94Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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4.77Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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8.65U. S. Naval Academy2.550.0%1st Place
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5.79Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
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10.91University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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9.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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9.32SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
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11.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
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8.63Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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11.21Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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13.18George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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15.62University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 10.4% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| James Paul | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| Brent Penwarden | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 17.9% | 16.4% |
| J.J. Smith | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 4.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 10.7% | 13.5% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 15.6% | 16.0% | 13.0% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Welburn | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 12.8% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 3.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| William Weinbecker | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 5.1% |
| Diego Escobar | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 4.5% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 12.6% | 17.2% | 13.0% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 9.2% | 16.8% | 46.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.