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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.39+4.84vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.64+2.92vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.55+5.92vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.94vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.40+0.56vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston2.35+3.49vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.54+1.71vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.50+0.85vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82+2.55vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.93+1.36vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.29-4.94vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.39+1.36vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University1.24+0.40vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.93-3.21vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.03-4.29vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-6.62vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College2.35-7.44vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.43-2.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.84Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
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4.92Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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8.92U. S. Naval Academy2.550.0%1st Place
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6.94St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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5.56Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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9.49College of Charleston2.350.0%1st Place
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8.71Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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8.85Dartmouth College2.500.0%1st Place
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11.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
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11.36Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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6.06Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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13.36George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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13.4Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
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10.79Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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10.71University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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9.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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9.56SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
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15.6University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 11.7% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 11.8% | 14.9% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Welburn | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Owen Hennessey | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 13.6% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.7% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
| Diego Escobar | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| James Paul | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 8.0% | 4.5% |
| J.J. Smith | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 3.9% |
| Stephan Baker | 11.3% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 12.6% | 15.6% | 16.4% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 19.3% | 14.8% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 2.8% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 17.9% | 46.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.