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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+2.81vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.39+1.87vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.45+0.92vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.71+1.58vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.81+2.49vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.28-1.82vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.74+0.47vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.95-0.91vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.11-2.14vs Predicted
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10Columbia University2.43-4.03vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49-1.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.81St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.2%1st Place
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3.87Old Dominion University3.390.2%1st Place
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3.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.450.2%1st Place
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5.58U. S. Naval Academy2.710.1%1st Place
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7.49Cornell University1.810.0%1st Place
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4.18Georgetown University3.280.2%1st Place
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7.47George Washington University1.740.0%1st Place
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7.09University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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6.86Fordham University2.110.0%1st Place
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5.97Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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9.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayumi Roller | 17.0% | 15.6% | 17.4% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Wilson | 17.8% | 18.0% | 13.2% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Kelly Crane | 15.6% | 16.2% | 16.9% | 14.5% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Killian Corbishley | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 14.2% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 1.6% |
| Alison Love | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 14.5% | 20.8% | 11.0% |
| Nancy Hagood | 15.5% | 15.3% | 13.6% | 14.9% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Kathleen Hilton | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 16.4% | 18.0% | 11.5% |
| Christina Johns | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 15.2% | 16.9% | 7.4% |
| Mia Cooper | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 15.6% | 13.9% | 13.4% | 6.3% |
| Irene Jacqz | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% |
| Maggy Ashton | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 8.9% | 14.1% | 59.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.