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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.40+3.39vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.57+4.44vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.06+2.30vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.69-0.20vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.55-0.80vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University0.79+2.85vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.39-0.10vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15-2.88vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia0.26+1.02vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-2.50vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.28-3.53vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.78-0.13vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.51-3.65vs Predicted
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14American University-3.13-0.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.39U. S. Naval Academy2.400.2%1st Place
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6.44Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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5.3University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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3.8Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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4.2Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
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8.85Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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6.9George Washington University1.390.1%1st Place
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5.12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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10.02University of Virginia0.260.0%1st Place
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7.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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7.47Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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11.87Princeton University-0.780.0%1st Place
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9.35Washington College0.510.0%1st Place
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13.79American University-3.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eva Blauvelt | 15.5% | 14.0% | 14.3% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.1% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 10.9% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 19.3% | 17.8% | 15.2% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 14.4% | 15.7% | 15.9% | 15.3% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 14.7% | 14.3% | 16.0% | 6.2% | 0.6% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Madison Bashaw | 11.7% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.7% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 17.9% | 24.6% | 14.4% | 2.1% |
| Heather Kerns | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 7.2% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 8.6% | 13.9% | 56.1% | 6.2% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 15.6% | 19.2% | 11.0% | 0.1% |
| Julia Kane | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 5.0% | 90.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.