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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+6.39vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.06+3.12vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.69+0.73vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.40+0.47vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.39+2.24vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.57+0.71vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.55-3.10vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15-2.92vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.28-1.51vs Predicted
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10Washington College0.51-0.46vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.79-2.23vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.78-0.16vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia0.26-3.06vs Predicted
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14American University-3.13-0.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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5.12University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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3.73Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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4.47U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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7.24George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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6.71Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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3.9Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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5.08St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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7.49Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
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9.54Washington College0.510.0%1st Place
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8.77Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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11.84Princeton University-0.780.0%1st Place
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9.94University of Virginia0.260.0%1st Place
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13.79American University-3.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heather Kerns | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 11.3% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 20.4% | 17.1% | 15.4% | 13.5% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 13.4% | 15.3% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 14.0% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 17.7% | 18.3% | 14.4% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 10.9% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 15.7% | 19.6% | 11.9% | 1.2% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 14.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 6.5% | 0.2% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 9.4% | 16.4% | 52.5% | 6.4% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 16.3% | 21.9% | 17.0% | 1.1% |
| Julia Kane | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 5.0% | 90.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.