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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.69+2.77vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+2.90vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+4.44vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.55+0.16vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.57+1.75vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.40-1.45vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.06-1.88vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia0.26+1.88vs Predicted
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9Washington College0.51+0.47vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.39-2.81vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.28-3.53vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.79-3.25vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.78-1.22vs Predicted
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14American University-3.13-0.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.77Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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4.9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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7.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.1%1st Place
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4.16Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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6.75Fordham University1.570.0%1st Place
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4.55U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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5.12University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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9.88University of Virginia0.260.0%1st Place
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9.47Washington College0.510.0%1st Place
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7.19George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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7.47Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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8.75Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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11.78Princeton University-0.780.0%1st Place
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13.78American University-3.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 20.0% | 17.9% | 16.2% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 12.3% | 12.6% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 7.2% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Piper Holthus | 15.4% | 18.0% | 11.9% | 15.1% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 4.6% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 14.4% | 12.5% | 13.8% | 13.4% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 10.9% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 14.3% | 24.1% | 16.7% | 1.1% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 18.2% | 18.4% | 10.0% | 1.1% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 13.8% | 14.6% | 7.1% | 0.5% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 15.2% | 53.1% | 6.7% |
| Julia Kane | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 5.4% | 90.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.