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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.69+2.71vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.55+1.92vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.40+1.34vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.57+2.54vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+0.10vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.28+1.45vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.22+0.23vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.88-2.37vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-1.53vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia0.26+0.01vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.79-2.33vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.51-2.61vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.78-1.24vs Predicted
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14American University-3.13-0.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.71Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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3.92Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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4.34U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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6.54Fordham University1.570.0%1st Place
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5.1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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7.45Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
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7.23George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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5.63University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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7.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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10.01University of Virginia0.260.0%1st Place
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8.67Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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9.39Washington College0.510.0%1st Place
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11.76Princeton University-0.780.0%1st Place
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13.78American University-3.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 20.3% | 19.9% | 16.1% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 18.2% | 16.5% | 15.3% | 14.2% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 15.0% | 14.6% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 4.6% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 9.6% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 6.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Madeleine Rice | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 4.9% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 14.5% | 24.3% | 15.8% | 1.5% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 14.7% | 14.8% | 14.5% | 6.0% | 0.2% |
| Kennedy Jones | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 14.5% | 18.4% | 11.8% | 0.9% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 9.5% | 14.1% | 53.0% | 6.6% |
| Julia Kane | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 5.8% | 90.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.