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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.43+3.21vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.55+1.95vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.88+2.52vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.40+0.29vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.57+1.22vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.39+0.69vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.79+1.12vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15-3.19vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia0.26+0.38vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.28-2.99vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-4.10vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.78-0.91vs Predicted
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13American University-3.13-0.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.21Cornell University2.430.2%1st Place
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3.95Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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5.52University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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4.29U. S. Naval Academy2.400.2%1st Place
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6.22Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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6.69George Washington University1.390.1%1st Place
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8.12Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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4.81St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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9.38University of Virginia0.260.0%1st Place
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7.01Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
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6.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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11.09Princeton University-0.780.0%1st Place
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12.81American University-3.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meredith Moran | 16.9% | 14.7% | 13.1% | 12.9% | 13.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 17.8% | 16.8% | 15.2% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 7.5% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 15.9% | 15.0% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 17.0% | 19.4% | 7.0% | 0.3% |
| Madison Bashaw | 12.1% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 29.2% | 19.4% | 1.2% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 0.2% |
| Heather Kerns | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 15.2% | 58.5% | 7.3% |
| Julia Kane | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 5.9% | 91.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.