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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.18+2.73vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy0.86+4.94vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91+3.93vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.01+2.68vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.32-1.49vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+0.12vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University1.86-2.71vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.00-1.34vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.26-2.88vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia-0.91+1.50vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.37-2.49vs Predicted
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12Washington College-0.61-1.10vs Predicted
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13American University-1.07-1.28vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.92-2.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.73University of Pennsylvania2.180.2%1st Place
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6.94U. S. Naval Academy0.860.0%1st Place
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6.93St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.1%1st Place
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6.68Old Dominion University1.010.0%1st Place
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3.51Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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6.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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4.29Georgetown University1.860.2%1st Place
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6.66Fordham University1.000.1%1st Place
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6.12George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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11.5University of Virginia-0.910.0%1st Place
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8.51Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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10.9Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
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11.72American University-1.070.0%1st Place
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11.42Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Chisari | 20.9% | 17.4% | 15.8% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 4.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Lily Flack | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Megan Geith | 4.9% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Sophia Devling | 20.5% | 20.7% | 16.2% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Riley Kloc | 15.8% | 15.2% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Avery Canavan | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Lydia Sweeney | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 18.0% | 20.5% | 26.1% |
| Laura Smith | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 6.1% | 1.8% |
| Hartley Meyer | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 14.0% | 18.9% | 18.1% | 16.6% |
| Anika Liner | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 11.1% | 14.7% | 22.3% | 30.8% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 11.2% | 15.5% | 24.6% | 23.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.