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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.32+2.45vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University1.86+2.35vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.18+0.72vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.01+2.70vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+1.08vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91+1.09vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.26-1.23vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.00-1.37vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.37-0.50vs Predicted
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10Washington College-0.61+0.92vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy0.86-3.86vs Predicted
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12American University-1.07-0.18vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.92-1.57vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia-0.91-2.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.45Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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4.35Georgetown University1.860.2%1st Place
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3.72University of Pennsylvania2.180.2%1st Place
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6.7Old Dominion University1.010.0%1st Place
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6.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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7.09St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.1%1st Place
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5.77George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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6.63Fordham University1.000.1%1st Place
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8.5Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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10.92Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
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7.14U. S. Naval Academy0.860.0%1st Place
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11.82American University-1.070.0%1st Place
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11.43Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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11.4University of Virginia-0.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Devling | 22.3% | 21.5% | 15.9% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Riley Kloc | 15.4% | 13.2% | 15.7% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 19.5% | 19.0% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Megan Geith | 4.4% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Lily Flack | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Avery Canavan | 8.2% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 14.1% | 13.7% | 10.0% | 5.3% | 1.8% |
| Hartley Meyer | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 18.0% | 19.0% | 16.9% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Anika Liner | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 10.7% | 15.8% | 21.1% | 32.4% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 12.1% | 16.4% | 21.3% | 25.6% |
| Lydia Sweeney | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 16.2% | 25.2% | 22.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.