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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.32+2.43vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.26+3.88vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.00+3.69vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University1.86+0.50vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.37+3.59vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy0.86+1.23vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.01-0.51vs Predicted
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8Washington College-0.61+2.69vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-2.92vs Predicted
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10American University-1.07+1.83vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91-3.98vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia-0.91-0.50vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.92-1.58vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.18-10.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.43Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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5.88George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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6.69Fordham University1.000.1%1st Place
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4.5Georgetown University1.860.1%1st Place
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8.59Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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7.23U. S. Naval Academy0.860.1%1st Place
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6.49Old Dominion University1.010.1%1st Place
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10.69Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
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6.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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11.83American University-1.070.0%1st Place
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7.02St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.1%1st Place
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11.5University of Virginia-0.910.0%1st Place
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11.42Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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3.66University of Pennsylvania2.180.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Devling | 22.2% | 21.6% | 17.5% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 7.2% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Riley Kloc | 12.7% | 15.0% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 13.3% | 10.7% | 6.7% | 2.1% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Megan Geith | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Hartley Meyer | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 18.0% | 19.2% | 15.3% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Anika Liner | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 3.6% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 16.7% | 21.8% | 31.8% |
| Lily Flack | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
| Lydia Sweeney | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 12.2% | 17.9% | 20.2% | 25.6% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 12.1% | 15.9% | 23.1% | 23.9% |
| Torrey Chisari | 21.9% | 16.0% | 15.5% | 15.3% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.