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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University1.86+3.46vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy0.86+4.93vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91+3.96vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.00+2.75vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.32-1.50vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.18-2.17vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.01-0.57vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-2.06vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.37-0.49vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.26-3.93vs Predicted
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11Princeton University-0.92+0.62vs Predicted
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12American University-1.07-0.17vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia-0.91-1.59vs Predicted
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14Washington College-0.61-3.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.46Georgetown University1.860.1%1st Place
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6.93U. S. Naval Academy0.860.0%1st Place
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6.96St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.1%1st Place
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6.75Fordham University1.000.0%1st Place
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3.5Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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3.83University of Pennsylvania2.180.2%1st Place
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6.43Old Dominion University1.010.1%1st Place
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5.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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8.51Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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6.07George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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11.62Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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11.83American University-1.070.0%1st Place
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11.41University of Virginia-0.910.0%1st Place
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10.76Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Kloc | 14.8% | 14.5% | 14.1% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 4.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Lily Flack | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Sophia Devling | 20.4% | 21.8% | 15.0% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 19.8% | 15.7% | 15.5% | 13.1% | 13.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Megan Geith | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 9.0% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 14.8% | 14.7% | 9.9% | 4.6% | 2.2% |
| Avery Canavan | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 15.8% | 24.1% | 26.2% |
| Anika Liner | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 16.0% | 21.6% | 32.5% |
| Lydia Sweeney | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 17.2% | 22.6% | 24.4% |
| Hartley Meyer | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 14.0% | 19.5% | 21.2% | 12.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.