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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.18+2.71vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.32+1.37vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91+3.96vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.00+2.72vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy0.86+2.16vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+0.07vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.01-0.59vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University1.86-3.53vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.37-0.54vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.26-3.91vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.61-0.06vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.92-0.46vs Predicted
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13American University-1.07-1.28vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia-0.91-2.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.71University of Pennsylvania2.180.2%1st Place
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3.37Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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6.96St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.1%1st Place
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6.72Fordham University1.000.0%1st Place
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7.16U. S. Naval Academy0.860.0%1st Place
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6.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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6.41Old Dominion University1.010.1%1st Place
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4.47Georgetown University1.860.1%1st Place
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8.46Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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6.09George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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10.94Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
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11.54Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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11.72American University-1.070.0%1st Place
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11.39University of Virginia-0.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Chisari | 20.1% | 19.2% | 15.9% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 22.8% | 20.7% | 14.8% | 15.7% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lily Flack | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 4.6% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.9% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Megan Geith | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Riley Kloc | 14.5% | 13.5% | 14.3% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 4.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 13.8% | 10.2% | 4.1% | 2.5% |
| Avery Canavan | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Hartley Meyer | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 13.1% | 19.1% | 20.6% | 15.8% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 7.6% | 11.8% | 17.2% | 20.8% | 26.4% |
| Anika Liner | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 16.4% | 21.3% | 31.3% |
| Lydia Sweeney | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 10.3% | 16.0% | 25.9% | 21.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.