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📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University1.86+3.41vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.18+1.63vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.00+3.66vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.32-0.51vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.26+1.19vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+0.08vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy0.86-0.17vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.01-1.38vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91-1.97vs Predicted
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10Washington College-0.61+0.92vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.37-2.54vs Predicted
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12American University-1.07-0.16vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.92-1.57vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia-0.91-2.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.41Georgetown University1.860.1%1st Place
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3.63University of Pennsylvania2.180.2%1st Place
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6.66Fordham University1.000.1%1st Place
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3.49Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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6.19George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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6.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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6.83U. S. Naval Academy0.860.1%1st Place
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6.62Old Dominion University1.010.1%1st Place
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7.03St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.1%1st Place
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10.92Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
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8.46Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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11.84American University-1.070.0%1st Place
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11.43Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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11.4University of Virginia-0.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Kloc | 13.8% | 16.1% | 14.9% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 20.9% | 18.0% | 15.9% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 7.0% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Sophia Devling | 20.8% | 20.9% | 15.1% | 14.6% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.3% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.2% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Megan Geith | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Lily Flack | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Hartley Meyer | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 13.3% | 18.7% | 18.7% | 16.8% |
| Laura Smith | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 12.9% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 5.3% | 1.7% |
| Anika Liner | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 11.6% | 15.1% | 21.7% | 32.1% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 11.4% | 16.9% | 21.3% | 25.8% |
| Lydia Sweeney | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 15.7% | 24.7% | 22.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.