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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.26+4.90vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.32+1.40vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+2.86vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.01+2.54vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.18-1.38vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University1.86-1.65vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.00-0.58vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.37+0.11vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy0.86-2.06vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91-3.20vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia-0.91-0.19vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.92-1.02vs Predicted
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13American University-1.07-1.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.9George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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3.4Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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5.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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6.54Old Dominion University1.010.1%1st Place
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3.62University of Pennsylvania2.180.2%1st Place
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4.35Georgetown University1.860.1%1st Place
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6.42Fordham University1.000.1%1st Place
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8.11Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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6.94U. S. Naval Academy0.860.1%1st Place
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6.8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.1%1st Place
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10.81University of Virginia-0.910.0%1st Place
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10.98Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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11.28American University-1.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery Canavan | 6.6% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Sophia Devling | 22.9% | 19.8% | 16.1% | 14.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.3% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Megan Geith | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Torrey Chisari | 20.2% | 19.5% | 13.3% | 15.4% | 11.5% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Riley Kloc | 14.6% | 14.4% | 15.1% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 7.5% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Laura Smith | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 18.2% | 14.2% | 8.7% | 1.8% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Lily Flack | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Lydia Sweeney | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 18.5% | 26.5% | 25.5% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 15.7% | 25.6% | 32.1% |
| Anika Liner | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 7.4% | 15.8% | 25.8% | 36.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.