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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy0.86+5.85vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University1.86+2.41vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.18+0.67vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University0.37+4.20vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.26+0.77vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.01+0.41vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-1.27vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.32-4.69vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.00-2.46vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75-2.88vs Predicted
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11American University-1.07+0.04vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.92-1.05vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia-0.91-2.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.85U. S. Naval Academy0.860.1%1st Place
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4.41Georgetown University1.860.1%1st Place
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3.67University of Pennsylvania2.180.2%1st Place
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8.2Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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5.77George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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6.41Old Dominion University1.010.1%1st Place
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5.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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3.31Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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6.54Fordham University1.000.1%1st Place
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7.12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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11.04American University-1.070.0%1st Place
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10.95Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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10.99University of Virginia-0.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aubin Hattendorf | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Riley Kloc | 13.7% | 14.7% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 20.2% | 16.3% | 17.4% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 16.2% | 14.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% |
| Avery Canavan | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Megan Geith | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.9% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Sophia Devling | 23.5% | 19.9% | 14.8% | 16.1% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 13.7% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Anika Liner | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 14.5% | 26.9% | 31.5% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 15.0% | 26.2% | 31.2% |
| Lydia Sweeney | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 18.1% | 23.6% | 31.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.