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📊 Prediction Accuracy
68.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.09+4.53vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.31+2.97vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.63+1.12vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont1.27+4.42vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.07+0.75vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University1.74+0.81vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.51+0.57vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64-1.05vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.11-0.23vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.25-1.57vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University0.39-0.03vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University0.07-0.07vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.73+0.81vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.13-1.58vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.90-8.69vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.42-2.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.53Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.090.1%1st Place
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4.97Brown University2.310.1%1st Place
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4.12Brown University2.630.2%1st Place
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8.42University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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5.75University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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6.81Salve Regina University1.740.1%1st Place
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7.57Tufts University1.510.1%1st Place
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6.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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8.77Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.110.0%1st Place
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8.43Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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10.97Northeastern University0.390.0%1st Place
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11.93Northwestern University0.070.0%1st Place
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13.81Princeton University-0.730.0%1st Place
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12.42SUNY Stony Brook-0.130.0%1st Place
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6.31Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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13.23SUNY Stony Brook-0.420.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Elliott | 11.2% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Styron | 13.6% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 18.2% | 16.5% | 13.0% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 0.3% |
| Miles Williams | 9.5% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nils Tullberg | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Green | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Egeli | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Samuel Rooks | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 15.1% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 6.5% |
| Matthew Beretta | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 15.4% | 15.9% | 12.8% |
| William Roberts | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 13.6% | 20.3% | 37.4% |
| Brendan Strein | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 16.7% | 18.7% | 15.1% |
| Shea Smith | 8.2% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jessica Schaefer | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 16.1% | 21.5% | 25.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.