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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.63+3.08vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+5.00vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.11+5.79vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.31+1.11vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.27+3.27vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University1.74+0.80vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.09-1.24vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.90-1.87vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University0.07+2.92vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.51-2.42vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.07-5.27vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University0.39-0.97vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.25-4.69vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.13-1.64vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.42-1.73vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.73-2.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.08Brown University2.630.2%1st Place
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7.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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8.79Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.110.0%1st Place
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5.11Brown University2.310.1%1st Place
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8.27University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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6.8Salve Regina University1.740.1%1st Place
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5.76Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.090.1%1st Place
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6.13Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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11.92Northwestern University0.070.0%1st Place
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7.58Tufts University1.510.1%1st Place
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5.73University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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11.03Northeastern University0.390.0%1st Place
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8.31Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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12.36SUNY Stony Brook-0.130.0%1st Place
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13.27SUNY Stony Brook-0.420.0%1st Place
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13.88Princeton University-0.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Stang | 18.3% | 17.0% | 15.3% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Green | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Egeli | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Thomas Styron | 13.3% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Nils Tullberg | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Elliott | 10.5% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Beretta | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 10.4% | 14.9% | 14.7% | 16.8% | 10.8% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Miles Williams | 11.6% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rooks | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 14.5% | 11.6% | 6.3% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Brendan Strein | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 16.6% | 17.0% | 16.0% |
| Jessica Schaefer | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 9.7% | 14.4% | 23.4% | 26.3% |
| William Roberts | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 14.1% | 20.2% | 38.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.