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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.31+3.96vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.90+4.20vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.63+1.13vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.09+1.77vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.27+3.27vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.07-0.23vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+0.14vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University0.39+2.97vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.11-0.29vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.25-1.56vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University1.74-4.27vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.51-4.48vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.13-0.55vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.07-2.16vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.42-1.78vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.73-2.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.96Brown University2.310.1%1st Place
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6.2Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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4.13Brown University2.630.2%1st Place
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5.77Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.090.1%1st Place
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8.27University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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5.77University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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7.14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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10.97Northeastern University0.390.0%1st Place
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8.71Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.110.0%1st Place
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8.44Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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6.73Salve Regina University1.740.1%1st Place
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7.52Tufts University1.510.1%1st Place
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12.45SUNY Stony Brook-0.130.0%1st Place
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11.84Northwestern University0.070.0%1st Place
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13.22SUNY Stony Brook-0.420.0%1st Place
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13.86Princeton University-0.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Styron | 12.8% | 13.1% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Mason Stang | 18.4% | 15.6% | 14.3% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Elliott | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Miles Williams | 10.3% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Green | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Rooks | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 15.6% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 5.3% |
| Tyler Egeli | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.2% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Nils Tullberg | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Brendan Strein | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 15.6% | 19.9% | 15.6% |
| Matthew Beretta | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 14.9% | 16.6% | 13.3% | 11.3% |
| Jessica Schaefer | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 15.6% | 22.7% | 26.1% |
| William Roberts | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 12.5% | 20.7% | 38.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.