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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.63+3.02vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.07+3.56vs Predicted
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3Salve Regina University1.74+3.63vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.31+1.06vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.09+0.55vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.51+1.46vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont1.27+1.21vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.90-1.97vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.11-0.40vs Predicted
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10Boston University0.72-0.05vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University0.07+0.77vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64-5.05vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University0.39-2.10vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.13-1.67vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.42-1.85vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.73-2.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.02Brown University2.630.2%1st Place
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5.56University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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6.63Salve Regina University1.740.1%1st Place
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5.06Brown University2.310.1%1st Place
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5.55Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.090.1%1st Place
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7.46Tufts University1.510.1%1st Place
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8.21University of Vermont1.270.1%1st Place
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6.03Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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8.6Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.110.0%1st Place
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9.95Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
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11.77Northwestern University0.070.0%1st Place
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6.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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10.9Northeastern University0.390.0%1st Place
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12.33SUNY Stony Brook-0.130.0%1st Place
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13.15SUNY Stony Brook-0.420.0%1st Place
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13.82Princeton University-0.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Stang | 19.3% | 16.9% | 15.6% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miles Williams | 11.1% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Nils Tullberg | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Styron | 11.9% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Elliott | 9.8% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Christian Cushman | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Shea Smith | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Egeli | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| William Wiegand | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 1.6% |
| Matthew Beretta | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 14.2% | 15.8% | 15.4% | 11.2% |
| Thomas Green | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rooks | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 10.9% | 5.3% |
| Brendan Strein | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 16.6% | 16.0% | 16.5% |
| Jessica Schaefer | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 22.8% | 25.7% |
| William Roberts | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 7.5% | 12.9% | 20.6% | 37.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.