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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.63+3.09vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.07+3.71vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.31+2.10vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.09+1.85vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.90+1.30vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.51+1.64vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.25+1.48vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.11+0.75vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.27-0.78vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University1.74-3.20vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University0.39+0.07vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64-4.89vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University0.35-1.84vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.13-1.54vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.42-1.68vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.73-2.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.09Brown University2.630.2%1st Place
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5.71University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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5.1Brown University2.310.1%1st Place
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5.85Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.090.1%1st Place
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6.3Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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7.64Tufts University1.510.1%1st Place
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8.48Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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8.75Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.110.0%1st Place
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8.22University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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6.8Salve Regina University1.740.1%1st Place
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11.07Northeastern University0.390.0%1st Place
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7.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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11.16Northwestern University0.350.0%1st Place
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12.46SUNY Stony Brook-0.130.0%1st Place
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13.32SUNY Stony Brook-0.420.0%1st Place
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13.96Princeton University-0.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Stang | 19.2% | 16.4% | 16.6% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miles Williams | 10.7% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Styron | 13.5% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Elliott | 8.8% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 5.9% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Tyler Egeli | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 0.3% |
| Christian Cushman | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Nils Tullberg | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Rooks | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 15.4% | 12.5% | 5.9% |
| Thomas Green | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Nikolas Chambers | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 14.6% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 6.4% |
| Brendan Strein | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 13.4% | 16.7% | 17.6% | 17.0% |
| Jessica Schaefer | 0.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 22.6% | 28.4% |
| William Roberts | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 12.8% | 21.3% | 39.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.