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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston University1.25+7.27vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.31+3.00vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.07+2.71vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.09+1.83vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+2.14vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.51+1.64vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.63-2.77vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont1.27+0.26vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University1.74-2.21vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.90-3.68vs Predicted
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11SUNY Stony Brook-0.42+2.16vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University0.35-0.78vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University0.39-1.90vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.11-5.23vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.13-2.39vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.73-2.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.27Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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5.0Brown University2.310.1%1st Place
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5.71University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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5.83Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.090.1%1st Place
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7.14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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7.64Tufts University1.510.1%1st Place
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4.23Brown University2.630.2%1st Place
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8.26University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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6.79Salve Regina University1.740.1%1st Place
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6.32Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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13.16SUNY Stony Brook-0.420.0%1st Place
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11.22Northwestern University0.350.0%1st Place
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11.1Northeastern University0.390.0%1st Place
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8.77Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.110.0%1st Place
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12.61SUNY Stony Brook-0.130.0%1st Place
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13.95Princeton University-0.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Thomas Styron | 13.5% | 14.6% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miles Williams | 11.3% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Elliott | 9.3% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Green | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Mason Stang | 19.2% | 15.1% | 14.7% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Nils Tullberg | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jessica Schaefer | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 22.0% | 27.8% |
| Nikolas Chambers | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 14.9% | 13.1% | 7.7% |
| Samuel Rooks | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 14.6% | 10.9% | 6.4% |
| Tyler Egeli | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Brendan Strein | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 17.7% | 21.5% | 16.1% |
| William Roberts | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 11.4% | 21.9% | 39.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.