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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.24+2.94vs Predicted
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2Salve Regina University0.62+6.53vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.66+2.46vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.01+0.59vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.62+0.75vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.68-0.52vs Predicted
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7Brown University1.83-1.95vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University0.12+2.22vs Predicted
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9Boston University0.77-0.79vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.72-1.47vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.81-2.80vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University-0.27-0.41vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.24-2.88vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.55-1.97vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.72-3.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.94University of Rhode Island2.240.2%1st Place
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8.53Salve Regina University0.620.0%1st Place
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5.46Tufts University1.660.1%1st Place
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4.59Brown University2.010.2%1st Place
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5.75Tufts University1.620.1%1st Place
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5.48Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.680.1%1st Place
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5.05Brown University1.830.1%1st Place
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10.22Northeastern University0.120.0%1st Place
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8.21Boston University0.770.0%1st Place
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8.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.720.0%1st Place
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8.2University of Vermont0.810.0%1st Place
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11.59Northwestern University-0.270.0%1st Place
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10.12Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.240.0%1st Place
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12.03SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
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12.33SUNY Stony Brook-0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Botwinick | 19.7% | 19.1% | 14.3% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Emil Tullberg | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 2.4% |
| Matthew Wallace | 10.3% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine McNamara | 15.1% | 14.2% | 14.0% | 12.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ella Hubbard | 9.1% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Max Katz-Christy | 10.9% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Emily Mueller | 12.4% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sylvia Burns | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 15.0% | 12.0% | 8.0% |
| Gavin Monaghan | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| William Hussey | 4.3% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 1.7% |
| Charles Morris | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 1.9% |
| George Warfel | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 14.9% | 18.5% | 17.8% |
| Andy Leshaw | 2.0% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 10.7% | 6.8% |
| Ryan Magill | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 19.1% | 26.4% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 17.0% | 33.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.