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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.01+3.55vs Predicted
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2Salve Regina University0.62+6.57vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.24+0.96vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.83+1.05vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.81+3.18vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.66-0.47vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.68-1.51vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.62-2.27vs Predicted
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9Boston University0.77-0.79vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.24-0.02vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University-0.27-0.64vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.72-4.36vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.55-1.85vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.72-2.61vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University0.12-5.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.55Brown University2.010.2%1st Place
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8.57Salve Regina University0.620.0%1st Place
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3.96University of Rhode Island2.240.2%1st Place
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5.05Brown University1.830.1%1st Place
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8.18University of Vermont0.810.0%1st Place
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5.53Tufts University1.660.1%1st Place
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5.49Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.680.1%1st Place
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5.73Tufts University1.620.1%1st Place
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8.21Boston University0.770.0%1st Place
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9.98Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.240.0%1st Place
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11.36Northwestern University-0.270.0%1st Place
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8.64U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.720.0%1st Place
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12.15SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
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12.39SUNY Stony Brook-0.720.0%1st Place
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10.2Northeastern University0.120.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katherine McNamara | 15.6% | 15.3% | 13.7% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Emil Tullberg | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 2.2% |
| Declan Botwinick | 19.6% | 15.4% | 14.7% | 13.7% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Mueller | 13.1% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Morris | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 1.2% |
| Matthew Wallace | 10.0% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Max Katz-Christy | 10.3% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ella Hubbard | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Monaghan | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Andy Leshaw | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 9.7% | 7.3% |
| George Warfel | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 17.2% | 18.4% |
| William Hussey | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 1.7% |
| Ryan Magill | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 14.3% | 18.7% | 28.5% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 20.7% | 31.9% |
| Sylvia Burns | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 15.0% | 12.7% | 7.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.